Iran on the Brink // FAI ONLINE

The director-general of the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) warned that only 3 to 4 weeks remain to resolve the issue of Iran’s nuclear program, as Iran announced the removal of “basically all” of the IAEA’s monitoring cameras at its declared nuclear sites. Rafael Grossi, the agency head, spoke at a press conference in Vienna on Thursday after the 35-member IAEA board voted to censure Iran due to it’s lack of compliance. Grossi claimed that, without visibility into Iran’s nuclear program, his agency would soon lose its “continuity of knowledge,” dealing the international negotiations around that program a “fatal blow” in less than a month.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi reacted to Grossi’s comments with defiance, vowing, “In the name of God and the great nation of Iran, we will not back off a single step from our positions.” The head of Iran’s atomic energy agency claimed that the IAEA is “hostage to the Zionist [Israeli] regime” and announced that two additional cascades of advanced nuclear centrifuges had come online at the Natanz nuclear plant. The operation of advanced centrifuges is a violation of the 2015 nuclear agreement. The IAEA previously reported that Iran has already produced enough highly-enriched uranium to build a nuclear weapon, achieving the “breakout” capacity which both the United States and Israel had previously set as a red line. Breakout capacity represents the threshold at which Iran can convert highly-enriched uranium into weapons-grade material in a matter of days.

The international community reacted to the IAEA chief’s dire prognosis on Thursday, as pressure against the Islamic Republic grew from Israel and the West. The European E3 nations of Britain, France and Germany released a joint press statement urging the Iranian regime to “resume application…of all JCPOA-related monitoring and verification measures, cease its nuclear escalation, and urgently conclude the deal currently on the table to restore the JCPOA [nuclear deal], while this is still possible.” US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken called on the Iranian government to drop “non-deal” related demands in nuclear negotiations.

The US Congress introduced two new bills this week which seek to limit Iranian hegemony across the Middle East. The bipartisan Abraham Accords congressional caucus published the text of the Deterring Enemy Forces and Enabling National Defenses (DEFEND) Act, which would work within the framework of the US-brokered 2020 Abraham Accords to combine the national air defense systems of Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Iraq. The unprecedented proposal is intended as a countermeasure against the growing size and sophistication of Iran’s missile and drone programs, which are deployed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its proxies into Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, on the northern borders of the State of Israel. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee also approved the Stop Iranian Drones Act (SIDA) for a full Congressional vote. According to the committee’s top Democratic and Republican members, the legislation would “make clear that supporting the supply, sale or transfer to or from Iran of UAVs, or providing other assistance related to UAVs, is sanctionable under US law.”

The Israeli government also reacted strongly to Iran’s defiance, both in words and action. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett warned that the Islamic Republic is “dangerously close to getting their hands on nuclear weapons” in an interview published Saturday. Bennett visited the UAE’s new president, Mohamed Bin-Zayed, in Abu Dhabi on Thursday, as the Jewish State continues to build ties with it’s Arab neighbors in their mutual interest against the threat of the Iranian regime. Also in the wake of the IAEA conference, an Israeli missile strike in Syria caused “heavy” damage to a terminal and runways at Damascus International Airport on Friday morning, forcing inbound and outbound flights to be suspended indefinitely. The Israeli government claims that the airport was being used by Iran for the delivery of military equipment to pro-Iranian militias. The airport strike represents a clear escalation in Israel’s strategy of “war between the wars” in Syria, where it has carried out hundreds of operations in the past decade, mostly unclaimed, in an ongoing attempt to disrupt the pipeline of fighters, weapons and materiel between Iran and the Israeli border.

Meanwhile, Iran’s internal problems continue to mount, as the weight of international sanctions and food shortages caused Iran’s currency to drop further in value against the US dollar. The Iranian rial has lost 25% of its value in the last three months, and over 90% of it’s value since 2017. Inflation in excess of 40% caused by drastic food and fuel price increases have left millions of Iranians desperate for basic necessities, while some Iranian economists have warned that inflation could exceed 100% in coming months. Hundreds of thousands have taken to the streets across the country, risking arbitrary arrest and violence from Iranian security forces, to demand accountability from their government. Iranian teachers will join a host of other union activists organizing nationwide demonstrations this week, as salaries have failed to keep pace with the rapid increase in prices.

Despite overwhelming opposition both at home and abroad, the Iranian regime continues to press forward with its nuclear program and proxy wars across the Middle East. A massive public rally at Azadi [Freedom] Stadium in the capital of Tehran on May 26 reveals the regime’s primary motivating factor for its self-destructive course, as tens of thousands of Iranian children and their parents were led in signing the anthem Sallam Farmandeh, or “Hello Commander” in Farsi. The song declares the readiness of fervent Muslims to receive the Imam Mehdi, the Islamic messiah figure. Although nuanced in different branches and schools of Islam, the Mehdi is generally understood by Muslims to be the apocalyptic leader of Muslim armies and savior of the Muslim world at the end of the present age, establishing a final caliphate (Islamic kingdom) which will conquer the Earth and eradicate all paganism and errant religions, including Christianity and Judaism. In Iran’s dominant Twelver Shi’a sect, the Mehdi is known as the Twelfth Imam, or the twelfth legitimate leader of Islam in the line of Ali ibn Abi Talib, the cousin and son-in-law of the Prophet Muhammad, who Shiites consider to be Muhammad’s legitimate heir. Iran’s political and military leaders have often repeated their belief that the Iranian Revolution of 1979 was the beginning of a revival in the Islamic world which will culminate in the arrival of the Mehdi and the destruction of the Jewish State. Iran’s ruling ayataollahs claim that they are the stewards of this movement, a belief which undergirds their aggressive geopolitical strategy in the Middle East in the face of all opposition, especially vis-a-vis Israel.

In light of last week’s events, it appears that the issue of Iran’s nuclear program and the activities of the IRGC are bringing Mideast diplomacy to its breaking point. The specter of a regional war involving Iran and its proxies against Israel and its Arab allies is becoming increasingly certain. Such a war would have massive political, economic, and humanitarian ramifications for not only the Middle East, but the entire world. We implore the Maranatha global family to join us in prayer during this consequential season of history. We pray for world leaders to be granted wisdom and unity in confronting and containing the growing threat of the Iranian regime. We pray for the protection and provision of the people of Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and the Arabian Peninsula, who are living in the shadow of Iranian aggression. Finally, as always, we pray that the mounting crisis would open even more “wide, effectual” doors for laborers to sow the Good News of the Kingdom across the fields of the Middle East.

Maranatha!