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BREAKING: TURKEY SEEKS NATO HELP IN FULL-SCALE SYRIAN INVASION

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Turkish military vehicles are seen in Hazano near Idlib, Syria, Feb. 11, 2020 (Credit: Khalil Ashawi, Reuters)

The Turkish government requested NATO enforcement of a no-fly zone over the northwestern territory of Idlib today, while Turkish president Recip Tayyip Erdogan threatened the the Syrian regime with a full-scale invasion if it does not withdraw from the besieged, rebel-held province. A major Turkish offensive in Syria appears increasingly certain after 13 Turkish soldiers were killed in support of Syrian rebel groups this month.

Turkey launched a limited operation to supply and support Syrian rebels in Idlib on February 10th, after the Syrian Army broke a years-long stalemate to begin making rapid gains across the province, coming within a few kilometers of the provincial capital. The regime has been supported by Shi’a militas such as Lebanese Hezbollah, as well as other groups which are recruited, armed and trained by the Iranian regime. Russia’s air force has also worn down rebel defenses with a punishing series of bombing sorties, killing hundreds of Syrian civilians with relentless, indiscriminate airstrikes. Almost one million Idlib residents have fled from the regime advance towards the Turkish border and Kurdish-held territories. Over a dozen children have died of exposure due to lack of shelter in harsh weather conditions.

After the regime offensive picked up steam, Turkey began supplying rebel groups with weapons, armored vehicles and other supplies, many of which are distributed to al-Qaeda linked rebel groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, formerly al-Nusra Front, an al-Qaeda franchise). Turkish tank and artillery units were also deployed into Idlib, but have so far been ineffective in blunting the Syrian and Russian advance.

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FAI had the unique and powerful opportunity to bring hope and Good News to the victims of the Syrian Civil War.

Fearful of losing his gains in northern Syria, Erdogan has threatened a massive counter-offensive for several days, positioning himself as the defender of Syrian self-determination against a brutal, repressive regime and their Iranian proxies. So far, his PR strategy has worked, garnering the support of the United States. American envoy to Syria James Jeffrey voiced support for an “all-in” Turkish operation in Idlib this week, referring to slain Turkish soldiers as “martyrs.”

However, American diplomats privately expressed alarm at the escalating situation in Idlib, worrying that Turkey and Russia are “very close to having more extensive conflict in the area.” Although Russia and Turkey have enjoyed a rapprochement in recent years over joint trade and energy projects, diplomatic talks to de-escalate in Idlib have deadlocked so far, with both sides refusing to back down in their support of opposing sides. Turkey and Russia have a long history of military conflict, stretching back to the early days of the Turkish Ottoman sultanate and the Russian Empire in the Sixteenth Century. It remains to be seen if, or how, NATO member states would support Turkey in a large-scale Syrian operation.

We would ask our global partners to continue in prayer for the situation in Idlib, which is becoming more dire and precarious by the day, and which threatens to trigger a domino effect that would quickly plunge the entire Middle East into a major conflagration. Please pray for divine wisdom to be granted to political leaders in applying pressure on Turkey and the Syrian regime, and for a divine hedge of protection around civilians in Idlib province.

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US REACHES DEAL WITH TALIBAN FOR CEASEFIRE, WITHDRAWAL

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US Army personnel prepare to evacuate a wounded service member in Afghanistan (Credit: Scott Olson, via DailyBeast.com)

US negotiators have reportedly reached a tentative ceasefire agreement with the Afghan government and the Islamist Taliban group in Afghanistan to begin political negotiations and the draw-down of international forces in the war-torn nation. The news comes after several failed efforts during both the Obama and Trump administrations to reach an agreement, which were often scuttled as a result of attacks by Taliban factions meant to disrupt the peace effort and prolong the conflict. Details of the negotiations were released to the press yesterday by anonymous sources involved in the process and are expected to be formally announced within the coming days.

The latest ceasefire deal calls for an immediate reduction in violence, including bombings and rocket attacks, to be sustained until political negotiations begin between the Afghani government and the Taliban in early March. The Taliban have reportedly already agreed to the conditions of deescalation. The deal represents the strict Islamist organization’s first opportunity to gain international legitimacy after seizing power in Afghanistan 25 years ago. If implemented, the plan would begin a process of withdrawing the majority of the almost 13,000 US troops currenty stationed in Afghanistan over the course of 18 months.

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Author, teacher and FAI board member Joel Richardson recently interviewed a leader in the Afghan underground church on his show, The Underground, to discuss the reasons behind the rapid multiplication of disciples in her home nation.

Almost 2,400 US service members have been killed either fighting or supporting the Afghanistan War since the US invasion in October, 2001, and more than 20,000 have been wounded. Almost 160,000 Afghans have died violently in the war, including 115,000 combatants and over 43,000 civilians. Poverty, hunger and the illicit drug trade have ravaged the country in the intervening years, making a negotiated end to the war a top priority for the United States, NATO and the Afghan government.

At the same time, the re-entrance of the Taliban into Afghan politics raises uncertainties, especially for women and minority populations in Afghanistan who have made significant gains in the past two decades after being brutally repressed and persecuted under Taliban rule in the late 1990’s. Although the Taliban is not a jihadist organization and has only local aspirations in Afghanistan and Pakistan, it nonetheless acted as a safe haven and a conduit for al-Qaeda in the years running up to 9/11. We would ask our global partners to pray for our political leaders during this critical time, that they would be granted divine wisdom in negotiating and implementing a peace plan that both ends the war and secures the hard-fought advances made for Afghan civilians over the last two decades. We also intercede for the burgeoning underground church in Afghanistan; for a divine hedge of protection around them and for seasons of continued fruitfulness as the gospel continues to make inroads among the poor and desperate in that unreached nation.

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WHILE WAR RAGES, HUMAN TRAFFICKERS THRIVE

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WHILE WAR RAGES, HUMAN TRAFFICKERS THRIVE

The global trafficking of persons has become one of the most heinous and widespread forms of criminal exploitation in the 21st century. Human trafficking is not simply the exploitation of vulnerable people, it is the exploitation of unstable political climates to build underground empires of organized crime. These networks are particularly successful in the Middle East because of multiple refugee crises, the kafala (sponsor) laws, the criminalization of victims, and pervasive conflict that keeps journalists focus on war, not trafficking issues.

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EXCLUSIVE: SYRIAN KURDS TO SIT DOWN WITH ASSAD REGIME

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Head of the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) Ilham Ahmed. (Credit: Reuters)

Co-chair of the Syrian Democratic Committee (SDC), Ilham Ahmed, announced yesterday that the democratic governing body of eastern Syria will sit down with the regime of Bashar al-Assad for peace negotiations soon. The arrangement was brokered by the government of Russia, which has taken an expanded role in Syrian Kurdistan since partial disengagement of US-led Coalition forces was ordered by the Trump Administration last October.

The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (NES) is a decentralized representative government that encompasses the Kurdish, Arab and Assyrian tribes east of the Eurphrates River within the borders of Syria. As the Assad regime withdrew to fight rebel forces west of the Euphrates in 2012, the Kurdish YPG milita took up the fight against ISIS in 2014, halting the advance of the caliphate at Kobane. After the YPG formed the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) with like-minded Christian and Arab Sunni Muslim groups, they began to gradually take back their homeland from the terrorist army which had transplanted itself into Syria from Iraq.

The triumph of the SDF alliance in northeast Syria between 2015-2019 facilitated the formation of the Syrian Democratic Committee, a loosely-knit body of regional and tribal governments who each have democratic representation in a federal body. The autonomous region, which has operated independently of Damascus on domestic issues for years, also drafted and ratified a constitution which enshrines many of the democratic and individualistic values shared by Western nations.

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FAI and the Free Burma Rangers have been on the ground in Syria for years. Click here to watch our field dispatches and other Syria-related content on YouTube

The United States was the primary foreign backer of the SDF between 2015 and 2019, until the Turkish invasion and establishment the so-called ‘Safe Zone” between Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ayn along the border in October, 2019. President Trump ordered the partial withdrawal of US forces from Syria in an attempt to appease his ally in Ankara. Since then, the SDF has begrudgingly agreed to the reintroduction of Syrian regime forces in Northeast Syria, and Russia has stepped into the vacuum to play the role of neutral arbiter between the SDF and Assad’s government.

The SDC is co-chaired by Ilham Ahmed, a native of Afrin, Syria, where Turkish-aligned jihadist militias committed documented war crimes against Kurdish civilians in 2018. She rose to prominence in the formation of the SDC and has been acting as its ambassadorial face across the western world in recent months, including a keynote address at FAI’s recent “Night of Prayer for the Kurds” in Washington, DC. Ms. Ahmed is optimistic about the prospect of Russian-brokered talks with the Syrian regime, calling Russia’s effort “serious” and emphasizing the Russian pledge to “exert pressure on the regime to accept a comprehensive settlement.” which would ostensibly include the recognition of the SDC and it's autonomy in some form, similar to the arrangement between the central Iraqi government of Baghdad and the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan.

However, Ms. Ahmed’s optimism was tempered by a personal knowledge of the Syrian negotiating partners who will sit across the table from her, who have heretofore ignored the SDC in previous UN-brokered peace talks. “Moving forward from dialogue to serious discussions requires an agenda and plan that would be addressed through dedicated committees”, she stated, emphasizing the importance of a practical framework to measure tangible progress towards a lasting settlement with a regime that has a 50 year history of Kurdish disenfranchisement and persecution.

Nonetheless, in the face of a Turkish onslaught and a diminishing US Coalition commitment, Ilham and her colleagues in the SDC are prepared to move forward and turn over a new leaf with Assad’s government. Russia’s mixed success in negotiating other ceasefires and peace agreements in Syria near the Golan Heights and in Idlib province will undoubtedly be tested in the coming months, but it is still the best prospect for normalization between the regime and the SDC.

An FAI source who works with Ilham Ahmed commented cautiously but positively on the new Russian peace initiative, saying, “Despite their problematic role, especially [in] siding with Assad completely, the Russians can sill guarantee a deal that could help Syria to transition. The Russians are not as friendly as the the U.S. to the Kurds but they are better than the Iranians and of course the Turks. They do not seek to change the Syrian demographic like Iran and Turkey. The best solution will be if the U.S. and Russia sit together and come up with a deal between SDF and Damascus. Unfortunately, the U.S [diplomats] still see the Syrian Islamist rebels as an alternative to Assad while there is no U.S. plan to change the regime. It's time now that real players sit together and negotiate rather than relying on changing the behavior of the Syrian regime through the Turkish supported Syrian opposition that does not have any constituency on the ground.”

Our source’s assessment was confirmed today in comments made by US State Dept Envoy for Syria, James Jeffrey, who described Turkish soldiers killed-in-action in Syria as “martyrs” and offered to provide Turkey “any support possible.” As long as the United States and other NATO stated legitimize Turkey’s criminal aggression in Syria, Russia will remain as the best, neutral alternative in Syrian peace talks.

Sources:

https://aawsat.com/english/home/article/2122816/ilham-ahmed-asharq-al-awsat-damascus-agreed-political-dialogue-guarantee-moscow

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-02-11/putin-has-painted-russia-into-a-syrian-corner

https://twitter.com/WyvernReports/status/1227287779006005248

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BREAKING: TURKISH COUNTER-OFFENSIVE IN SYRIA ATTACKED BY REGIME, RUSSIA

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Photo of a US-made armored vehicle, purchased by Turkey and supplied to Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Idlib province. (Credit: @humamisa on Twitter)

The Turkish government confirmed that five of its soldiers were killed in an attack on a Turkish base near Taftanaz in Syria’s Idlib province yesterday. The news broke just hours after a massive counter-offensive was launched by Turkey against regime forces and their Iranian-sponsored proxies in Idlib. Today’s attacks mark the second time that the Syrian regime caused multiple Turkish casualties in a single operation since Turkey’s latest incursion into Idlib on Feb 3. Turkey responded with attacks on Syrian regime positions inside Idlib.

Local reports have also surfaced that a Russian airstrike destroyed several Turkish military vehicles in a rebel NLF convoy in Idlib today. Turkey denies that it’s troops were in the convoy, but evidence has surfaced that Turkey is supplying their US-made armored vehicles to the Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate and other jihadist rebel groups in Syria this week. which US-made armored vehicles were supplied to Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate HTS by the Turkish military. This would be the second time that Turkish military vehicles were struck in Idlib after a Syrian regime attack on a Turkish convoy on Feb 3rd. If confirmed, it would be the first strike by the Russian military on the Turkish military since the beginning of the Idlib offensive.

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FAI had the unique and powerful opportunity to bring hope and Good News to the victims of the Syrian Civil War.

Despite efforts by both Russia and Turkey to de-conflict, the posture of their forces on opposite sides of the Syrian conflict creates a powder keg in Idlib in which a mistake or miscommunication can quickly escalate into a diplomatic and military crisis, similar to the downing of a Russian military jet by Turkish anti-aircraft in 2015.

We would ask our global partners to continue in prayer for the containment and quick resolution of the Idlib conflict, with no further escalation and minimal casualties. Please pray for divine wisdom to be granted to political leaders in applying pressure on both Turkey and the Syrian regime, and for a divine hedge of protection around civilians in Idlib province.