Turkish military vehicles deploying to the Syrian border (via Ahval.com)
Turkish army trucks carrying personnel and military hardware were mobilized near the border of Turkey and Syria on Saturday, only two days after Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened another incursion into Syria to counter a Syrian and Russian offensive against rebel forces in Idlib province. In conjunction with massive Russian bombing campaigns, the Syrian army and its Iranian-backed militia partners have made significant progress toward the provincial capital of Idlib in the last week, after breaking a stalemate with rebel forces that had lasted more than a year. Idlib is one of the seedbeds of the Syrian revolution and the last remaining province under rebel control. Under a de-confliction deal with Russia in 2018, Turkey is allowed to keep observation posts inside Idlib, where it maintains a military presence in support of rebel groups there. The largest rebel faction in Idlib is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an jihadist offshoot of al-Qaeda, which controls more than half of the provincial territory. The remnants of ISIS leadership had also found sanctuary in Idlib as late as last year, where ISIS leader Abu-Bakr al-Baghdadi was cornered by US forces in the shadow of the Turkish border in October, 2019.
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In a televised address, Erdogan accursed the Syrian regime of cruelty against its own people, and accused the Russians of violating the 2018 agreement. Already, Turkish-backed rebel forces have begun a counter-offensive. An online video published today showed the recapture of a joint Syrian-Russian base in Idlib, and other rebel forces managed to recapture several towns near the former rebel stronghold of Aleppo.
The entrance of the Turkish army into the conflict with Syrian and Russian forces would be a significant escalation, potentially drawing two regional powers into a hot war with one another. Already, almost 400,000 Idlib residents have fled their homes to travel north and eastward toward the Turkish border and Kurdish territory.
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