Convoys of Turkish military vehicles crossed the border into Syria’s Idlib governate on Sunday, marking a dramatic escalation in the struggle for control of the restive province. Turkish president Erdogan had threatened a counter-offensive in Idlib last week after the Syrian regime’s latest campaign to pacify the last rebel-held province made significant progress. This is the fourth major Turkish offensive into Syria and the second into Idlib province in just 3 years. Erdogan also ordered the invasion and occupation of Kurdish-majority border areas around Afrin and Tel Abyad in 2018 and 2019 respectively.
The Turkish military had previously established a ring of observation posts in Idlib, according to the terms of a de-confliction agreement with Russia in 2018. Several of the posts had been surrounded by militias loyal to the Syrian regime, providing a pretext for Erdogan to deploy a larger invasion force into Idlib. Upon their arrival, Turkish forces immediately began engaging pro-regime positions with airstrikes and shelling. Turkey has been the main patron of Syrian rebel groups since the beginning of the Syrian Civil War, including radical Salafist groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former al-Qaeda franchise.
The entrance of the Turkish military into Idlib places Turkey in direct confrontation with Iran and Russia, whose air and ground forces are supporting the Syrian regime. The proximity of Turkish, Iranian and Russian forces to each other on opposing sides presents a significant risk of escalation, not only for the war in Syria, but for the entire region. Almost 400,000 civilians have already fled from the fighting along the Syrian axis of advance, with another half-million people at risk, mostly women and children.
We ask our global partners to join us in prayer in the coming days for a swift end to the conflict in Idlib with minimal casualties, and for the latest round of war and upheaval to open up new paths for laborers of the harvest to bring Good News to the harassed and helpless people of Syria, who are caught in the cross-fire between four brutal regimes.
Sources:
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