BREAKING: ISRAEL STRIKES SYRIA AFTER BARRAGE FROM GAZA
The Israeli Air Force (IAF) responded to a barrage of rocket fire from the Gaza Strip last night with airstrikes against terrorist positions in Gaza and Syria. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) claimed responsibility for over 20 rockets fired from Gaza which triggered alarms and red alerts across the “Gaza Envelope,” or the belt around the restive Palestinian territory which is vulnerable to short-range rocket fire. The Iron Dome missile defense system was deployed and successfully intercepted 13 rockets which directly threatened Israeli communities.
PIJ announced that the attacks were in response to the death of one of their fighters, who was killed earlier yesterday by Israeli forces as he planted explosives along the Gaza border fence. Besides its usual response against Hamas and PIJ targets in the Gaza Strip, the IAF also struck PIJ targets south of Damascus, Syria. An Israeli press release was unusually detailed regarding a Syrian strike, describing the targeted compound as a facility where weapons are developed and manufactured for use against Israeli targets from Gaza.
The situation may continue to escalate further today as PIJ has threatened to increase the range of its rocket fire to the Israeli communities of Ashkelon and Beer Sheva. Israeli Home Command has ordered civilians in communities near Gaza to avoid congregating in large groups, in order to decrease the likelihood of a mass casualty incident in the event of further rocket fire.
Sources:
https://twitter.com/sfrantzman/status/1231706213399826433
https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1231674928870678529
https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1231652439377502219?
https://twitter.com/jtruzmah/status/1231641124168536064?
https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1231615567192346627
https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1231639683752452097?
BREAKING: TURKEY SEEKS NATO HELP IN FULL-SCALE SYRIAN INVASION
The Turkish government requested NATO enforcement of a no-fly zone over the northwestern territory of Idlib today, while Turkish president Recip Tayyip Erdogan threatened the the Syrian regime with a full-scale invasion if it does not withdraw from the besieged, rebel-held province. A major Turkish offensive in Syria appears increasingly certain after 13 Turkish soldiers were killed in support of Syrian rebel groups this month.
Turkey launched a limited operation to supply and support Syrian rebels in Idlib on February 10th, after the Syrian Army broke a years-long stalemate to begin making rapid gains across the province, coming within a few kilometers of the provincial capital. The regime has been supported by Shi’a militas such as Lebanese Hezbollah, as well as other groups which are recruited, armed and trained by the Iranian regime. Russia’s air force has also worn down rebel defenses with a punishing series of bombing sorties, killing hundreds of Syrian civilians with relentless, indiscriminate airstrikes. Almost one million Idlib residents have fled from the regime advance towards the Turkish border and Kurdish-held territories. Over a dozen children have died of exposure due to lack of shelter in harsh weather conditions.
After the regime offensive picked up steam, Turkey began supplying rebel groups with weapons, armored vehicles and other supplies, many of which are distributed to al-Qaeda linked rebel groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, formerly al-Nusra Front, an al-Qaeda franchise). Turkish tank and artillery units were also deployed into Idlib, but have so far been ineffective in blunting the Syrian and Russian advance.
Fearful of losing his gains in northern Syria, Erdogan has threatened a massive counter-offensive for several days, positioning himself as the defender of Syrian self-determination against a brutal, repressive regime and their Iranian proxies. So far, his PR strategy has worked, garnering the support of the United States. American envoy to Syria James Jeffrey voiced support for an “all-in” Turkish operation in Idlib this week, referring to slain Turkish soldiers as “martyrs.”
However, American diplomats privately expressed alarm at the escalating situation in Idlib, worrying that Turkey and Russia are “very close to having more extensive conflict in the area.” Although Russia and Turkey have enjoyed a rapprochement in recent years over joint trade and energy projects, diplomatic talks to de-escalate in Idlib have deadlocked so far, with both sides refusing to back down in their support of opposing sides. Turkey and Russia have a long history of military conflict, stretching back to the early days of the Turkish Ottoman sultanate and the Russian Empire in the Sixteenth Century. It remains to be seen if, or how, NATO member states would support Turkey in a large-scale Syrian operation.
We would ask our global partners to continue in prayer for the situation in Idlib, which is becoming more dire and precarious by the day, and which threatens to trigger a domino effect that would quickly plunge the entire Middle East into a major conflagration. Please pray for divine wisdom to be granted to political leaders in applying pressure on Turkey and the Syrian regime, and for a divine hedge of protection around civilians in Idlib province.
Sources:
https://ahvalnews.com/idlib/turkey-informs-nato-idlib-operation-asks-enforcement-no-fly-zone?amp
https://ahvalnews.com/syria/turkish-intervention-syrias-idlib-matter-time-erdogan-says
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/18/world/europe/turkey-syria-idlib.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur
https://twitter.com/wyvernreports/status/1227287779006005248?
https://twitter.com/BaxtiyarGoran/status/1230068824365506560
WHILE WAR RAGES, HUMAN TRAFFICKERS THRIVE
The global trafficking of persons has become one of the most heinous and widespread forms of criminal exploitation in the 21st century. Human trafficking is not simply the exploitation of vulnerable people, it is the exploitation of unstable political climates to build underground empires of organized crime. These networks are particularly successful in the Middle East because of multiple refugee crises, the kafala (sponsor) laws, the criminalization of victims, and pervasive conflict that keeps journalists focus on war, not trafficking issues.
EXCLUSIVE: SYRIAN KURDS TO SIT DOWN WITH ASSAD REGIME
Co-chair of the Syrian Democratic Committee (SDC), Ilham Ahmed, announced yesterday that the democratic governing body of eastern Syria will sit down with the regime of Bashar al-Assad for peace negotiations soon. The arrangement was brokered by the government of Russia, which has taken an expanded role in Syrian Kurdistan since partial disengagement of US-led Coalition forces was ordered by the Trump Administration last October.
The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (NES) is a decentralized representative government that encompasses the Kurdish, Arab and Assyrian tribes east of the Eurphrates River within the borders of Syria. As the Assad regime withdrew to fight rebel forces west of the Euphrates in 2012, the Kurdish YPG milita took up the fight against ISIS in 2014, halting the advance of the caliphate at Kobane. After the YPG formed the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) with like-minded Christian and Arab Sunni Muslim groups, they began to gradually take back their homeland from the terrorist army which had transplanted itself into Syria from Iraq.
The triumph of the SDF alliance in northeast Syria between 2015-2019 facilitated the formation of the Syrian Democratic Committee, a loosely-knit body of regional and tribal governments who each have democratic representation in a federal body. The autonomous region, which has operated independently of Damascus on domestic issues for years, also drafted and ratified a constitution which enshrines many of the democratic and individualistic values shared by Western nations.
The United States was the primary foreign backer of the SDF between 2015 and 2019, until the Turkish invasion and establishment the so-called ‘Safe Zone” between Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ayn along the border in October, 2019. President Trump ordered the partial withdrawal of US forces from Syria in an attempt to appease his ally in Ankara. Since then, the SDF has begrudgingly agreed to the reintroduction of Syrian regime forces in Northeast Syria, and Russia has stepped into the vacuum to play the role of neutral arbiter between the SDF and Assad’s government.
The SDC is co-chaired by Ilham Ahmed, a native of Afrin, Syria, where Turkish-aligned jihadist militias committed documented war crimes against Kurdish civilians in 2018. She rose to prominence in the formation of the SDC and has been acting as its ambassadorial face across the western world in recent months, including a keynote address at FAI’s recent “Night of Prayer for the Kurds” in Washington, DC. Ms. Ahmed is optimistic about the prospect of Russian-brokered talks with the Syrian regime, calling Russia’s effort “serious” and emphasizing the Russian pledge to “exert pressure on the regime to accept a comprehensive settlement.” which would ostensibly include the recognition of the SDC and it's autonomy in some form, similar to the arrangement between the central Iraqi government of Baghdad and the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan.
However, Ms. Ahmed’s optimism was tempered by a personal knowledge of the Syrian negotiating partners who will sit across the table from her, who have heretofore ignored the SDC in previous UN-brokered peace talks. “Moving forward from dialogue to serious discussions requires an agenda and plan that would be addressed through dedicated committees”, she stated, emphasizing the importance of a practical framework to measure tangible progress towards a lasting settlement with a regime that has a 50 year history of Kurdish disenfranchisement and persecution.
Nonetheless, in the face of a Turkish onslaught and a diminishing US Coalition commitment, Ilham and her colleagues in the SDC are prepared to move forward and turn over a new leaf with Assad’s government. Russia’s mixed success in negotiating other ceasefires and peace agreements in Syria near the Golan Heights and in Idlib province will undoubtedly be tested in the coming months, but it is still the best prospect for normalization between the regime and the SDC.
An FAI source who works with Ilham Ahmed commented cautiously but positively on the new Russian peace initiative, saying, “Despite their problematic role, especially [in] siding with Assad completely, the Russians can sill guarantee a deal that could help Syria to transition. The Russians are not as friendly as the the U.S. to the Kurds but they are better than the Iranians and of course the Turks. They do not seek to change the Syrian demographic like Iran and Turkey. The best solution will be if the U.S. and Russia sit together and come up with a deal between SDF and Damascus. Unfortunately, the U.S [diplomats] still see the Syrian Islamist rebels as an alternative to Assad while there is no U.S. plan to change the regime. It's time now that real players sit together and negotiate rather than relying on changing the behavior of the Syrian regime through the Turkish supported Syrian opposition that does not have any constituency on the ground.”
Our source’s assessment was confirmed today in comments made by US State Dept Envoy for Syria, James Jeffrey, who described Turkish soldiers killed-in-action in Syria as “martyrs” and offered to provide Turkey “any support possible.” As long as the United States and other NATO stated legitimize Turkey’s criminal aggression in Syria, Russia will remain as the best, neutral alternative in Syrian peace talks.
Sources:
https://aawsat.com/english/home/article/2122816/ilham-ahmed-asharq-al-awsat-damascus-agreed-political-dialogue-guarantee-moscow
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-02-11/putin-has-painted-russia-into-a-syrian-corner
https://twitter.com/WyvernReports/status/1227287779006005248
BREAKING: TURKISH COUNTER-OFFENSIVE IN SYRIA ATTACKED BY REGIME, RUSSIA
The Turkish government confirmed that five of its soldiers were killed in an attack on a Turkish base near Taftanaz in Syria’s Idlib province yesterday. The news broke just hours after a massive counter-offensive was launched by Turkey against regime forces and their Iranian-sponsored proxies in Idlib. Today’s attacks mark the second time that the Syrian regime caused multiple Turkish casualties in a single operation since Turkey’s latest incursion into Idlib on Feb 3. Turkey responded with attacks on Syrian regime positions inside Idlib.
Local reports have also surfaced that a Russian airstrike destroyed several Turkish military vehicles in a rebel NLF convoy in Idlib today. Turkey denies that it’s troops were in the convoy, but evidence has surfaced that Turkey is supplying their US-made armored vehicles to the Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate and other jihadist rebel groups in Syria this week. which US-made armored vehicles were supplied to Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate HTS by the Turkish military. This would be the second time that Turkish military vehicles were struck in Idlib after a Syrian regime attack on a Turkish convoy on Feb 3rd. If confirmed, it would be the first strike by the Russian military on the Turkish military since the beginning of the Idlib offensive.
Despite efforts by both Russia and Turkey to de-conflict, the posture of their forces on opposite sides of the Syrian conflict creates a powder keg in Idlib in which a mistake or miscommunication can quickly escalate into a diplomatic and military crisis, similar to the downing of a Russian military jet by Turkish anti-aircraft in 2015.
We would ask our global partners to continue in prayer for the containment and quick resolution of the Idlib conflict, with no further escalation and minimal casualties. Please pray for divine wisdom to be granted to political leaders in applying pressure on both Turkey and the Syrian regime, and for a divine hedge of protection around civilians in Idlib province.
Sources:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/5-turkish-troops-killed-in-clashes-with-syrian-army/
https://twitter.com/RojavaNetwork/status/1226954711368183808
https://twitter.com/NBbreaking/status/1226821899096920064
https://twitter.com/NBbreaking/status/1226821899096920064
https://twitter.com/humamisa/status/1226940514341195776
https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/1226960670396178433
https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2020/10-february-turkish-officials-denied-military-convoy-attack
ISRAEL STRIKES THREATS ON TWO FRONTS
At least four airstrikes rocked the Syrian capital of Damascus and its surrounding environs early Thursday morning. Several amateur videos posted online showed incoming missile fire over Damascus and outgoing surface-to-air retaliatory fire as Syrian state media reported it was engaging “enemy targets” in its airspace. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the strikes, although Israel has admitted to conducting hundreds of strikes in Syria and Iraq over the past six years, mostly targeting weapons pipelines of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Lebanese Hezbollah and high-ranking members of Palestinian terrorist groups.
The targeted facilities in Damascus reportedly include a military airport, a research facility and a base that houses Syria’s 75th Brigade. There is no confirmation of damage or casualties at this time, nor has an objective been determined, although Syrian intelligence analysts generally agree that the IRGC and Lebanese Hezbollah are active in and around Damascus.
News of the airstrikes in Syria broke immediately following confirmation by the Israeli Air Force (IAF) that Israeli warplanes conducted airstrikes in the Gaza Strip. The Gaza strikes came after another day of explosive balloons and mortar attacks terrorized Israeli citizens in the so-called “Gaza Envelope”. The Israeli Army confirmed airstrikes on several positions belonging to Hamas, the terrorist group that rules the sequestered strip.
Hamas called for “escalating confrontations with the occupation and its settlers” today after three incidents involving Molotov Cocktails in the West Bank city of Hebron. Often a flash point of tension, Hebron has been seething since US President Trump’s joint news conference with Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu last week, in which he announced his “Deal of the Century” Israeli-Palestinian peace accord - a plan which was roundly rejected across the board by Palestinian leadership. On Sunday, an IDF soldier was struck by a Molotov Cocktail while patrolling in Hebron, followed by a Border Patrol officer in the same city the next day. Monday’s attack resulted in light injuries to the officer, whose clothing was briefly ignited by the projectile. Then on Tuesday, Israeli security forces shot and killed a 17-year-old Palestinian in the act of lobbing yet another Molotov Cocktail in their direction. The death of Palestinian youth engaged in “resistance” against Israel is often a lightning rod for Palestinian factions who propagandize the death of children as a pretext for bellicose rhetoric and increased violence.
Sources:
https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1225213839052038145
https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1225143061459566594
https://twitter.com/ignis_fatum/status/1225142384079638528
https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1225089499010564097
https://twitter.com/JudahAriGross/status/1225086344936009728
https://twitter.com/wakaltyaqein/status/1225071637269241857
https://twitter.com/Omar_Gaza/status/1225189861608562688
https://twitter.com/mohmad_rasheed/status/1225208434267697153
https://twitter.com/Mulhak/status/1225207475097554949
https://twitter.com/Mulhak/status/1225206439721029633
https://twitter.com/MGhorab3/status/1225206402215489536
https://twitter.com/mohmad_rasheed/status/1225202820942618629
https://twitter.com/HadiAlabdallah/status/1225199302479360000
https://twitter.com/m3nati/status/1225197562963144705
https://twitter.com/mohmad_rasheed/status/1225217515011411969
https://twitter.com/Omar_Gaza/status/1225198321003831299
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRUTQgoynf0&feature=youtu.be
https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-calls-for-increased-confrontations-with-israel-and-settlers/
https://www.timesofisrael.com/molotov-cocktail-explodes-on-border-policeman-in-hebron/
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/275639
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/13/world/middleeast/israel-iran-strike-syria-tunnels.html