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BREAKING: TURKEY SEEKS NATO HELP IN FULL-SCALE SYRIAN INVASION

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Turkish military vehicles are seen in Hazano near Idlib, Syria, Feb. 11, 2020 (Credit: Khalil Ashawi, Reuters)

The Turkish government requested NATO enforcement of a no-fly zone over the northwestern territory of Idlib today, while Turkish president Recip Tayyip Erdogan threatened the the Syrian regime with a full-scale invasion if it does not withdraw from the besieged, rebel-held province. A major Turkish offensive in Syria appears increasingly certain after 13 Turkish soldiers were killed in support of Syrian rebel groups this month.

Turkey launched a limited operation to supply and support Syrian rebels in Idlib on February 10th, after the Syrian Army broke a years-long stalemate to begin making rapid gains across the province, coming within a few kilometers of the provincial capital. The regime has been supported by Shi’a militas such as Lebanese Hezbollah, as well as other groups which are recruited, armed and trained by the Iranian regime. Russia’s air force has also worn down rebel defenses with a punishing series of bombing sorties, killing hundreds of Syrian civilians with relentless, indiscriminate airstrikes. Almost one million Idlib residents have fled from the regime advance towards the Turkish border and Kurdish-held territories. Over a dozen children have died of exposure due to lack of shelter in harsh weather conditions.

After the regime offensive picked up steam, Turkey began supplying rebel groups with weapons, armored vehicles and other supplies, many of which are distributed to al-Qaeda linked rebel groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, formerly al-Nusra Front, an al-Qaeda franchise). Turkish tank and artillery units were also deployed into Idlib, but have so far been ineffective in blunting the Syrian and Russian advance.

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Fearful of losing his gains in northern Syria, Erdogan has threatened a massive counter-offensive for several days, positioning himself as the defender of Syrian self-determination against a brutal, repressive regime and their Iranian proxies. So far, his PR strategy has worked, garnering the support of the United States. American envoy to Syria James Jeffrey voiced support for an “all-in” Turkish operation in Idlib this week, referring to slain Turkish soldiers as “martyrs.”

However, American diplomats privately expressed alarm at the escalating situation in Idlib, worrying that Turkey and Russia are “very close to having more extensive conflict in the area.” Although Russia and Turkey have enjoyed a rapprochement in recent years over joint trade and energy projects, diplomatic talks to de-escalate in Idlib have deadlocked so far, with both sides refusing to back down in their support of opposing sides. Turkey and Russia have a long history of military conflict, stretching back to the early days of the Turkish Ottoman sultanate and the Russian Empire in the Sixteenth Century. It remains to be seen if, or how, NATO member states would support Turkey in a large-scale Syrian operation.

We would ask our global partners to continue in prayer for the situation in Idlib, which is becoming more dire and precarious by the day, and which threatens to trigger a domino effect that would quickly plunge the entire Middle East into a major conflagration. Please pray for divine wisdom to be granted to political leaders in applying pressure on Turkey and the Syrian regime, and for a divine hedge of protection around civilians in Idlib province.

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EXCLUSIVE: SYRIAN KURDS TO SIT DOWN WITH ASSAD REGIME

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Head of the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) Ilham Ahmed. (Credit: Reuters)

Co-chair of the Syrian Democratic Committee (SDC), Ilham Ahmed, announced yesterday that the democratic governing body of eastern Syria will sit down with the regime of Bashar al-Assad for peace negotiations soon. The arrangement was brokered by the government of Russia, which has taken an expanded role in Syrian Kurdistan since partial disengagement of US-led Coalition forces was ordered by the Trump Administration last October.

The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (NES) is a decentralized representative government that encompasses the Kurdish, Arab and Assyrian tribes east of the Eurphrates River within the borders of Syria. As the Assad regime withdrew to fight rebel forces west of the Euphrates in 2012, the Kurdish YPG milita took up the fight against ISIS in 2014, halting the advance of the caliphate at Kobane. After the YPG formed the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) with like-minded Christian and Arab Sunni Muslim groups, they began to gradually take back their homeland from the terrorist army which had transplanted itself into Syria from Iraq.

The triumph of the SDF alliance in northeast Syria between 2015-2019 facilitated the formation of the Syrian Democratic Committee, a loosely-knit body of regional and tribal governments who each have democratic representation in a federal body. The autonomous region, which has operated independently of Damascus on domestic issues for years, also drafted and ratified a constitution which enshrines many of the democratic and individualistic values shared by Western nations.

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The United States was the primary foreign backer of the SDF between 2015 and 2019, until the Turkish invasion and establishment the so-called ‘Safe Zone” between Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ayn along the border in October, 2019. President Trump ordered the partial withdrawal of US forces from Syria in an attempt to appease his ally in Ankara. Since then, the SDF has begrudgingly agreed to the reintroduction of Syrian regime forces in Northeast Syria, and Russia has stepped into the vacuum to play the role of neutral arbiter between the SDF and Assad’s government.

The SDC is co-chaired by Ilham Ahmed, a native of Afrin, Syria, where Turkish-aligned jihadist militias committed documented war crimes against Kurdish civilians in 2018. She rose to prominence in the formation of the SDC and has been acting as its ambassadorial face across the western world in recent months, including a keynote address at FAI’s recent “Night of Prayer for the Kurds” in Washington, DC. Ms. Ahmed is optimistic about the prospect of Russian-brokered talks with the Syrian regime, calling Russia’s effort “serious” and emphasizing the Russian pledge to “exert pressure on the regime to accept a comprehensive settlement.” which would ostensibly include the recognition of the SDC and it's autonomy in some form, similar to the arrangement between the central Iraqi government of Baghdad and the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan.

However, Ms. Ahmed’s optimism was tempered by a personal knowledge of the Syrian negotiating partners who will sit across the table from her, who have heretofore ignored the SDC in previous UN-brokered peace talks. “Moving forward from dialogue to serious discussions requires an agenda and plan that would be addressed through dedicated committees”, she stated, emphasizing the importance of a practical framework to measure tangible progress towards a lasting settlement with a regime that has a 50 year history of Kurdish disenfranchisement and persecution.

Nonetheless, in the face of a Turkish onslaught and a diminishing US Coalition commitment, Ilham and her colleagues in the SDC are prepared to move forward and turn over a new leaf with Assad’s government. Russia’s mixed success in negotiating other ceasefires and peace agreements in Syria near the Golan Heights and in Idlib province will undoubtedly be tested in the coming months, but it is still the best prospect for normalization between the regime and the SDC.

An FAI source who works with Ilham Ahmed commented cautiously but positively on the new Russian peace initiative, saying, “Despite their problematic role, especially [in] siding with Assad completely, the Russians can sill guarantee a deal that could help Syria to transition. The Russians are not as friendly as the the U.S. to the Kurds but they are better than the Iranians and of course the Turks. They do not seek to change the Syrian demographic like Iran and Turkey. The best solution will be if the U.S. and Russia sit together and come up with a deal between SDF and Damascus. Unfortunately, the U.S [diplomats] still see the Syrian Islamist rebels as an alternative to Assad while there is no U.S. plan to change the regime. It's time now that real players sit together and negotiate rather than relying on changing the behavior of the Syrian regime through the Turkish supported Syrian opposition that does not have any constituency on the ground.”

Our source’s assessment was confirmed today in comments made by US State Dept Envoy for Syria, James Jeffrey, who described Turkish soldiers killed-in-action in Syria as “martyrs” and offered to provide Turkey “any support possible.” As long as the United States and other NATO stated legitimize Turkey’s criminal aggression in Syria, Russia will remain as the best, neutral alternative in Syrian peace talks.

Sources:

https://aawsat.com/english/home/article/2122816/ilham-ahmed-asharq-al-awsat-damascus-agreed-political-dialogue-guarantee-moscow

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-02-11/putin-has-painted-russia-into-a-syrian-corner

https://twitter.com/WyvernReports/status/1227287779006005248

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BREAKING: TURKISH COUNTER-OFFENSIVE IN SYRIA ATTACKED BY REGIME, RUSSIA

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Photo of a US-made armored vehicle, purchased by Turkey and supplied to Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Idlib province. (Credit: @humamisa on Twitter)

The Turkish government confirmed that five of its soldiers were killed in an attack on a Turkish base near Taftanaz in Syria’s Idlib province yesterday. The news broke just hours after a massive counter-offensive was launched by Turkey against regime forces and their Iranian-sponsored proxies in Idlib. Today’s attacks mark the second time that the Syrian regime caused multiple Turkish casualties in a single operation since Turkey’s latest incursion into Idlib on Feb 3. Turkey responded with attacks on Syrian regime positions inside Idlib.

Local reports have also surfaced that a Russian airstrike destroyed several Turkish military vehicles in a rebel NLF convoy in Idlib today. Turkey denies that it’s troops were in the convoy, but evidence has surfaced that Turkey is supplying their US-made armored vehicles to the Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate and other jihadist rebel groups in Syria this week. which US-made armored vehicles were supplied to Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate HTS by the Turkish military. This would be the second time that Turkish military vehicles were struck in Idlib after a Syrian regime attack on a Turkish convoy on Feb 3rd. If confirmed, it would be the first strike by the Russian military on the Turkish military since the beginning of the Idlib offensive.

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Despite efforts by both Russia and Turkey to de-conflict, the posture of their forces on opposite sides of the Syrian conflict creates a powder keg in Idlib in which a mistake or miscommunication can quickly escalate into a diplomatic and military crisis, similar to the downing of a Russian military jet by Turkish anti-aircraft in 2015.

We would ask our global partners to continue in prayer for the containment and quick resolution of the Idlib conflict, with no further escalation and minimal casualties. Please pray for divine wisdom to be granted to political leaders in applying pressure on both Turkey and the Syrian regime, and for a divine hedge of protection around civilians in Idlib province.

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TURKISH ARMY CROSSES SYRIAN BORDER INTO IDLIB, ENGAGES WITH PRO-REGIME FORCES

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Turkish military vehicles arrive in Idlib province on Feb 2, 2020. (Credit: المركز الإعلامي العام MMC via Telegram).

Convoys of Turkish military vehicles crossed the border into Syria’s Idlib governate on Sunday, marking a dramatic escalation in the struggle for control of the restive province. Turkish president Erdogan had threatened a counter-offensive in Idlib last week after the Syrian regime’s latest campaign to pacify the last rebel-held province made significant progress. This is the fourth major Turkish offensive into Syria and the second into Idlib province in just 3 years. Erdogan also ordered the invasion and occupation of Kurdish-majority border areas around Afrin and Tel Abyad in 2018 and 2019 respectively.

The Turkish military had previously established a ring of observation posts in Idlib, according to the terms of a de-confliction agreement with Russia in 2018. Several of the posts had been surrounded by militias loyal to the Syrian regime, providing a pretext for Erdogan to deploy a larger invasion force into Idlib. Upon their arrival, Turkish forces immediately began engaging pro-regime positions with airstrikes and shelling. Turkey has been the main patron of Syrian rebel groups since the beginning of the Syrian Civil War, including radical Salafist groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former al-Qaeda franchise.

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The entrance of the Turkish military into Idlib places Turkey in direct confrontation with Iran and Russia, whose air and ground forces are supporting the Syrian regime. The proximity of Turkish, Iranian and Russian forces to each other on opposing sides presents a significant risk of escalation, not only for the war in Syria, but for the entire region. Almost 400,000 civilians have already fled from the fighting along the Syrian axis of advance, with another half-million people at risk, mostly women and children.

We ask our global partners to join us in prayer in the coming days for a swift end to the conflict in Idlib with minimal casualties, and for the latest round of war and upheaval to open up new paths for laborers of the harvest to bring Good News to the harassed and helpless people of Syria, who are caught in the cross-fire between four brutal regimes.

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TURKEY MOBILIZES AS ERDOGAN THREATENS IDLIB COUNTER-OFFENSIVE

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Turkish military vehicles deploying to the Syrian border (via Ahval.com)

Turkish army trucks carrying personnel and military hardware were mobilized near the border of Turkey and Syria on Saturday, only two days after Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened another incursion into Syria to counter a Syrian and Russian offensive against rebel forces in Idlib province. In conjunction with massive Russian bombing campaigns, the Syrian army and its Iranian-backed militia partners have made significant progress toward the provincial capital of Idlib in the last week, after breaking a stalemate with rebel forces that had lasted more than a year. Idlib is one of the seedbeds of the Syrian revolution and the last remaining province under rebel control. Under a de-confliction deal with Russia in 2018, Turkey is allowed to keep observation posts inside Idlib, where it maintains a military presence in support of rebel groups there. The largest rebel faction in Idlib is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an jihadist offshoot of al-Qaeda, which controls more than half of the provincial territory. The remnants of ISIS leadership had also found sanctuary in Idlib as late as last year, where ISIS leader Abu-Bakr al-Baghdadi was cornered by US forces in the shadow of the Turkish border in October, 2019.

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In a televised address, Erdogan accursed the Syrian regime of cruelty against its own people, and accused the Russians of violating the 2018 agreement. Already, Turkish-backed rebel forces have begun a counter-offensive. An online video published today showed the recapture of a joint Syrian-Russian base in Idlib, and other rebel forces managed to recapture several towns near the former rebel stronghold of Aleppo.

The entrance of the Turkish army into the conflict with Syrian and Russian forces would be a significant escalation, potentially drawing two regional powers into a hot war with one another. Already, almost 400,000 Idlib residents have fled their homes to travel north and eastward toward the Turkish border and Kurdish territory.

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SYRIAN AND RUSSIAN FORCES PUSH TO END SYRIAN REVOLUTION

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Syrian residents of Idlib province flee in advance of the oncoming offensive led by the Syrian Army, the Russian Air Force and their Iranian-linked allies (Via Aleppo Media Centre, Twitter).

The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) began a major offensive to retake the last remaining rebel-held province in Syria this week. Idlib province in Syria’s northwest has effectively been controlled by Syrian rebel forces for the past seven years, and after the surrender of rebel groups in southwestern Qunitera province in 2018, it has remained as the last bastion of the Syrian revolution. A conglomerate of rebel factions occupy the province, ranging from moderate nationalists to al-Qaeda and ISIS-linked jihadists.

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FAI had the unique and powerful opportunity to bring hope and Good News to the victims of the Syrian Civil War.

Thousands of Syrian army regulars, along with Lebanese Hezbollah, Palestinian militias and other foreign militia groups sponsored by Iran, have begun a major campaign to take the restive province back from the remaining rebel forces with support from the Russian air force. The Russians have conducted more than 200 bombing sorties in recent days, including the reported use of cluster munitions, which are illegal under international law. The Syrian army has also stepped up its use of its notorious “barrel bombs”, explosives-packed oil drums, which are most often dropped from regime helicopters. The crude munitions are infamous for their indiscriminate and devastating effect on Syrian civilians. At least 10 civilians have died in air raids so far this week.

So far, the regime has made considerable progress towards the provincial capital of Idlib, capturing the vital town of Maarat al-Numan and pressing into its surrounding villages on the way to Idlib city, barely 40 kilometers away. Thousands of civilians have fled northward towards the Turkish border or eastward towards Syrian Kurdistan. Many have entered the provinces controlled by the Kurdish-led SDF, where they are warmly welcomed.

US officials estimate that as many as 700,000 more Syrian civilians could be displaced before the Idlib campaign is over. Over 13 million Syrians have already been displaced in the 8 year civil war, almost of half of which reside in camps in the nations surrounding Syria. The conflict has claimed the lives of an estimated half-million Syrians.

Sources:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/syrian-army-takes-key-town-in-last-major-rebel-bastion-of-idlib/2020/01/29/dcb58438-41ec-11ea-99c7-1dfd4241a2fe_story.html

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/10-killed-air-attack-syria-idlib-200130114220892.html

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-syrian-army-captures-several-areas-in-eastern-idlib/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/palestinian-led-liwaa-al-quds-in-action-against-jihadists-in-aleppo-video/

https://twitter.com/vvanwilgenburg/status/1222887082017935361

https://twitter.com/thiqanewsagency/status/1222907886269059073

https://twitter.com/mohmad_rasheed/status/1222804876100587526

https://twitter.com/mohmad_rasheed/status/1222811824464130049

https://twitter.com/thiqanewsagency/status/1222817419191779333

https://twitter.com/thiqanewsagency/status/1222817419191779333

https://twitter.com/AleppoAMC/status/1222820248648372224

https://twitter.com/Step_Agency/status/1222825365330153472

https://twitter.com/Step_Agency/status/1222835559405629442

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsArabia_B/status/1222875271700926467

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsArabia_B/status/1222875667752198145

https://twitter.com/thiqanewsagency/status/1222907886269059073